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The CEO of leading on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant says one metric is flashing a massive red flag for Bitcoin (BTC) bulls.
Ki Young Ju tells his 292,600 Twitter followers that historical data shows Bitcoin could plummet all the way down to $14,000.

“So here’s hopium for bears.
If BTC crashed so hard due to the macro crisis and all Bitcoiner institutions go underwater, it could go $14,000 based on historical maximum drawdown.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is down 3.58% and priced at $29,240. A move to the analyst’s bearish price target suggests a 52% downside risk for BTC.
According to the quant analyst, the most recent Bitcoin investors will likely be deep underwater should market prices fall into his worst-case scenario.
“Bitcoin maximum drawdown in worst-case scenario.
Newbies down 67%.
Experienced one bear cycle – down 39%.
Experienced two bear cycles – profit guaranteed.
Experienced three bear cycles – profit guaranteed.
Today, newbies who joined last year are in -34% loss.”
Source: Ki Young Ju/Twitter
Ki Young Ju next provides the average entry price for each generation of Bitcoin investors over its 11 years in existence by following the UTXO age bands metric, which tracks the potential price level where long-term holders accumulated BTC.

#Bitcoin OG's Entry Price:
1st gen – $1.32nd gen – $6533rd gen – $8,7174th gen – $43,582
I'm the 3rd gen. Hang in there, 4th gen. pic.twitter.com/iWkEwFO4zV
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 14, 2022

The analyst also recently observed that institutional investors are now the dominant force in Bitcoin trading.
“Retail investors are leaving the crypto market. Not bad for accumulating Bitcoin with institutions, but still worried about overall volume, which is significantly decreased compared to last year.”
The CryptoQuant CEO next looks at leading smart contract platform Ethereum (ETH). He highlights that the ETH ecosystem remains strong despite a massive decline in price due to heavy interest in new blockchain niches like decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and play-to-earn blockchain games (GameFi).
“ETH price dropped -56% from the top, but the number of active addresses just decreased by 7%.
If we consider each address as a user, Ethereum has 551,705 DAU (Daily Active Users) today.
These degens don’t care about ETH price but ape into DeFi, NFT, DAO, and GameFi projects.”
Source: Ki Young Ju/Twitter
Ethereum is also down by 2.57%, changing hands for $1,965.
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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.



Featured Image: Shutterstock/kilshieds
The post One Metric Indicates Bitcoin (BTC) Could Crash by Over 50% As Macro Environment Worsens, Says CryptoQuant CEO appeared first on The Daily Hodl.


The CEO of leading on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant says one metric is flashing a massive red flag for Bitcoin (BTC) bulls. Ki Young Ju tells his 292,600 Twitter followers that historical data shows Bitcoin could plummet all the way down to $14,000. &#8220;So here&#8217;s hopium for bears. If ...

dailyhodl.com

One Metric Indicates Bitcoin (BTC) Could Crash by Over 50% As Macro Environment Worsens, Says CryptoQuant CEO

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin NUPL metric has now declined to lows not seen since the COVID-19 crash back in 2020.
Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit And Loss Plunged Down Recently
As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the NUPL past trend may suggest that current values could be favorable for a rebound in the crypto’s price.
The “net unrealized profit and loss,” or NUPL in brief, is an indicator that’s defined as the difference between the current Bitcoin market cap and its realized cap, divided by the market cap.
The “realized cap” checks what price each coin on the chain was last moved at, and using these prices it calculates the crypto’s capitalization (while the normal market cap takes the sum of all coins’ value at the current price).
What this metric tells us is whether the BTC market participants as a whole are holding a profit or a loss at the moment.
When the value of the ratio is above zero, it means the overall market is in profit currently. On the other hand, values less than zero imply holders are carrying a loss right now.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Selling Pressure Continues As Long-Term Holder SOPR Spikes Up 
Naturally, the metric being exactly equal to zero suggests the investors as a whole are just breaking even currently.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL metric over the last few years:

It seems like the value of the metric has touched into the green zone recently | Source: CryptoQuant
As you can see in the above graph, the quant has marked the different zones of the Bitcoin NUPL indicator with different colors.
It looks like the ratio has observed some decline recently, and its value has now plunged down into the “green” zone for the first time since the COVID-19 crash.
Related Reading | More Stress For El Salvador As Bitcoin Dips To $29,000
In the history of the crypto, there have been multiple instances where shortly after the indicator has touched into this zone, the price has seen an upwards turn.
However, there is also the example of 2018, where the Bitcoin NUPL kept moving sideways in the green zone for a long while, until finally the value of the coin observed a sharp plummet, taking the market into loss.
It now remains to be seen whether this time the crypto will follow the pattern of a rebound, or if it will show a trend similar to that in 2018.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $30.2k, down 1% in the past week.

Looks like the price of the crypto has been moving sideways around $30k recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com


On-chain data shows the Bitcoin NUPL metric has now declined to lows not seen since the COVID-19 crash back in 2020. Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit And Loss Plunged Down Recently As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the NUPL past trend may suggest that current values could be favorabl...

newsbtc.com

Bitcoin NUPL Touches Lows Not Seen Since COVID Crash, Rebound Soon?


May 20, 2022 – Hong Kong, Hong Kong


Shortly after the beta launch of Wombat Exchange, a hyper-efficient multi-chain stableswap backed by Binance, the crypto world was struck by the devastating collapse of TerraUSD. Wombat Exchange withstood the wild market swings in defiance of predictions while many decentralized stablecoin exchanges were left feeble and drained.

Their 24-hour trading volume reached an all-time high of $35 million, and the liquidity cap ascended to $40 million as of May 20, 2022. This immense success within a month of launch surpassed notable projects like Dodo and AcryptoS on BNB Chain.
The next-generation stableswap 2.0
Wombat is a multi-chain stableswap native to the BNB Chain. It re-engineered the stableswap experience through its innovative algorithm design, enabling lower slippage and greater capital efficiency. Stability is one of Wombat Exchange’s main characteristics, which kept it immovably secure through the recent black swan event.
They are the first protocol to bring the ‘equilibrium coverage ratio’ concept to maintain overall system health and ultimately protect its users’ funds. With this method, Wombat can spot risks and manage them before tragedies strike.
Although Wombat exists only in the BNB Chain at this stage, that won’t be for long. Wombat is designed to be multi-chained, and the capacity for scaling is monumental. The protocol can thrive in any chain – owing much of it to their all-in-one closed form quadratic solution.
This mechanism is highly efficient and scalable, and a few of its user-oriented perks are providing exact calculations, achieving lower gas fees and managing liquidity more effectively. This makes Wombat a potential challenger of the almighty Curve Finance.
Wombat has its eyes set on building its own thriving ecosystem for the longer term. An incubation lab is a part of the roadmap where it can support future projects building on top of them. The synergy of these projects will generate certain benefits for Wombat’s governance token holders, as providing value to its users is undeniably woven into their goal.
About Wombat Exchange
Wombat Exchange is a BNB native multi-chain stableswap focused on re-engineering the stableswap experience through its algorithm design. Wombat’s vision is to fuel DeFi growth and push boundaries with greater capital efficiency, accessibility and scalability in a multi-chain world.
Wombat’s success in the Binance incubation program was followed by the Binance BNB Chain ‘most valuable builder’ season four incubation program, where it had the pleasure of being one of the monthly stars for January.
For more information about Wombat Exchange, visit the following links.
Website | Discord | Twitter | Medium | Telegram
Contact
Cheri Man
This content is sponsored and should be regarded as promotional material. Opinions and statements expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions of The Daily Hodl. The Daily Hodl is not a subsidiary of or owned by any ICOs, blockchain startups or companies that advertise on our platform. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in any ICOs, blockchain startups or cryptocurrencies. Please be advised that your investments are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility.

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The post Wombat Soars to $40 Million in Total Value Locked While Still at Beta appeared first on The Daily Hodl.


May 20, 2022 – Hong Kong, Hong Kong Shortly after the beta launch of Wombat Exchange, a hyper-efficient multi-chain stableswap backed by Binance, the crypto world was struck by the devastating collapse of TerraUSD. Wombat Exchange withstood the wild market swings in defiance of predictions while ...

Wombat Soars to $40 Million in Total Value Locked While Still at Beta


Today’s on-chain analysis looks at the Realized Loss indicators to determine what stage of a bear market bitcoin (BTC) price is at. Specifically, Realized Loss and Net Realized Profit/Loss.



The realized loss today is comparable to the absolute price lows of BTC in 2014 and 2018. Moreover, in some cases, these values have even been exceeded. This in turn suggests that it is possible that bitcoin has already reached a bottom or is very close to doing so.



BTC realized loss



Realized loss denotes the total loss (expressed in dollars) of all moved coins whose price at their last movement was higher than their price at their current movement.



In absolute numbers for this indicator, we see that the seven-day simple moving average (7D SMA) reached its second-highest level in history yesterday. It was only surpassed by the May 2021 crash, when bitcoin fell from the $59,000 level to a low of $30,000 in just a few days. 



Although the current decline is not as steep – from $40,000 to $26,700 – the amount of realized loss is comparable.







Chart by Glassnode



On a long-term chart of realized loss, one can see another argument that on-chain data is signaling an impending bear market bottom. In a tweet yesterday, on-chain analyst @therationalroot published a chart of realized loss and profit relative to market capitalization.



He then marked a horizontal line (black) on it, around which the realized loss peaked at previous lows in the bitcoin price. It appears that the ongoing capitulation is comparable to investor behavior from the end of the bear market in December 2018, the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, and the aforementioned May 2021 decline.







Source: Twitter



However, the analyst stresses that today’s macro economic situation is different and there is a danger that the declines will continue. Therefore, he concludes by asking the question: “Will bitcoiners stand the test of time?”



BTC Net Realized Profit/Loss



Additional insight into bitcoin’s market situation is provided by the related Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator. This is a chart of the net profit or loss of all moved coins, determined by the difference between realized profit and realized loss.



Looking at the long-term view of this indicator, we see that its 7D SMA just hit an all-time low (ATL) at -$1.28 billion. However, looking at historical data, this does not necessarily mean a bottom for the BTC price at all.



For example, the previous ATLs of Net Realized Profit/Loss were reached in Feb 2018 and May 2021 (blue circles). In both cases, they were caused by a sharp decline in the bitcoin price. 



However, the price subsequently recorded lower levels, even though the indicator was no longer falling as low. Over a period of several months, a bullish divergence appeared (blue lines).







Chart by Glassnode



Moreover, such a bullish divergence only in the second case led to a significant bottom and a rise in the BTC price in July 2021 towards the new ATH. On the other hand, in June 2018, there was indeed a local bottom for bitcoin near $6,000. However, after a short-term uptrend, the price collapsed, reaching an absolute low near $3,000 in Dec 2018.



Two styles of realized loss: 2014 and 2018



Another popular cryptocurrency analyst @SwellCycle presented on Twitter a similar analogy with the previous bear market lows of 2014 and 2018. He showed how the realized loss (expressed in BTC, not USD) corresponded with the bottom of the bitcoin price in two ways.



At the end of the bear market in 2014, all it took was one wave to coincide with bitcoin’s macro bottom. In contrast, in 2018, it was only the second wave of a realized loss that led to an absolute bottom in the BTC price. In today’s market conditions, the first wave has just taken place.







Source: Twitter



Are we in for a second wave and an even lower BTC price than $26,700? The analyst answers: “Taking a closer look, I’d say both 2014 and 2018 style outcomes have similar probability.”



Thus, if the 2014 scenario were to repeat itself, the bitcoin price has already reached a bottom. However, if, similar to 2018, we are in for another wave of large market loss realizations, then BTC could dive south even further. The latter scenario is in line with the Net Realized Profit/Loss ratio, where we do not yet see a bullish divergence.



For Be[In]Crypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.
The post Bitcoin (BTC) on-Chain Analysis: Realized Loss Reaches ATH; Signal of a Bottom? appeared first on BeInCrypto.


Today's on-chain analysis looks at the Realized Loss indicators to determine what stage of a bear market bitcoin (BTC) price is at. Specifically, Realized Loss and Net Realized Profit/Loss are taken into account.
The post Bitcoin (BTC) on-Chain Analysis: Realized Loss Reaches ATH; Signal of a Bot...

beincrypto.com

Bitcoin (BTC) on-Chain Analysis: Realized Loss Reaches ATH; Signal of a Bottom?

PRESS RELEASE. Binance is a curious company. the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, it also has no official headquarters and operates outside regulatory control. But that may not stop its step. Binance.US raised funding at a $4.5bn valuation this month, providing a new case for Binance enthusiasts. Today, they can share the exciting news that Freedom Protocol has set a new record on IDO volume.
Freedom Protocol is a new financial protocol that makes pledging easier and more efficient. It makes the largest amount of IDO with over $4M, and it is another big DeFi project issued on the Binance Smart Chain.
Freedom Protocol is wise to raise funds while it can. Revenue depends on trading volumes in its crypto, which are notoriously volatile. It is sensible to put aside capital when it can while building relations with external investors. It is worth mentioning that Freedom Protocol raises $4 from normal users instead of professional agencies.
Freedom Protocol fans like to claim their purpose is always challenging the traditional financial world. No matter how difficult his actions appear, they believe the Freedom Protocol boss has secret plans. Parsing its $4M IDO size to take DeFi platform come true requires a similar level of faith.
Freedom Protocol announced that they aim to make simplicity and directness of financial investment for all crypto enthusiasts. They were warmly welcomed on Binance Smart Chain(BSC) which is the public chain launched by Binance, it helps them achieve a record on IDO volume within a few days.
The first to welcome them are the opinion leaders. A few KOLs on Twitter post passionate tweets for this project, followed by publishing outdoor advertising in Australia and starting a lot of campaigns of various types.
Freedom Protocol is a typical case who is concentrating on private investment, stakes in private companies and individuals, all areas where institutional clients have been increasing allocations in recent years. Now Freedom Protocol launches its business around the world, including the ads for airport taxis in Germany, which indicate the determination of Freedom Protocol to intend to help more customers in other countries.
With nothing to prove, Freedom Protoco is also confident enough to voice the view that a model dominated by traditional finance is due an overhaul. And this time it is companies and management that need to adapt to DeFi’s needs, rather than vice versa.
Binance chief executive Changpeng Zhao described DeFi as infrastructure for the new digital world, and encourage many investors and entrepreneurs to get involved in DeFi story.
But mainstream acceptance will be slow as they know. Regulators continue to worry that crypto is being used for money laundering and other crimes. US SEC chair Gary Gensler has called crypto markets a “Wild West”. The noise is off-putting for both prospective investors and employees. So Freedom Protocol this week tweeted that they were trying to apply for cryptoasset licenses from both Dubai and Japan, it moves away from portraying itself as a decentralized organization with no fixed headquarters.
The Dubai permissions will allow it to extend limited services to pre-qualified investors and professional financial service providers. “The firm will also locate a “blockchain technology hub” in the Dubai World Trade Centre.” Oscar, Founder of Freedom Protocol said.
The success of Freedom Protocol is a tiny reflection of a startling larger truth: the huge audience crypto has so far left on the financial system and innovation of the internet. And as the size of financial work directly affects the daily life of every employed human on the planet, that matters.
The global crypto market is estimated to have a market worth more than $2tn. Binance’s own digital token is up more than 1,000 percent since the start of 2021. Freedom Protocol becomes a unique perspective on why Binance is so successful in recent years.
Perhaps Freedom Protocol has a plan to transform the financial model entirely. Maybe it will one day be a crypto payments company. Or an NFT trading platform. Or perhaps all the platform’s users just want to own it.
Website: www.freedomprot.com
Contact: Oscar
Email: marketing@freedomprot.com
 

This is a press release. Readers should do their own due diligence before taking any actions related to the promoted company or any of its affiliates or services. Bitcoin.com is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in the press release.



























PRESS RELEASE. Binance is a curious company. the world&#x2019;s largest cryptocurrency exchange, it also has no official headquarters and operates outside regulatory control. But that may not stop its step. Binance.US raised funding at a $4.5bn valuation this month, providing a new case for Binan...

Chain price	$0.090524
Low - High 24H	$0.086389 - $0.092809
Market cap	$1.53B
Volume 24H	$58.88M
All time high	$0.138116 -34.46% May 18th 2022
All time low	$0.044516 103.34% March 15th 2022
Genesis date	N/A

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